SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BECAUSE OF U.S. JOBS REPORTS

 

I’m sorry if I sound like a broken record, but as I pointed out in some earlier blog posts (such as Hartman (2026, a)), again we may have received somewhat contradictory information in the U.S. employment reports released today (Friday, August 7).  It seems that at least some were surprised by the decrease in employment of 23,000 jobs in July, (my calculation which seems to match others) from data compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2026, a) when measured by the workplace establishment survey on a seasonally adjusted basis.  However, with the data not seasonally adjusted, the decrease in employment was much larger.  Using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2026, b), I estimate that total nonfarm payroll employment fell by almost 1.1 million jobs in July 2026.

I would like to mention at least two other U.S. employment measures, those being the seasonally adjusted household employment survey and the not seasonally adjusted household survey. When surveying households about employment status rather than surveying workplaces, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2026, c) reports seasonally adjusted data such that I estimate that this measure of employment fell by more than 85,000 from June 2026 to July 2026.

For those looking for a bright spot in the announcements, I can tell you that with data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2026, d) not seasonally adjusted, I estimate that the measure of employment increased by a little less than 80,000 jobs in July.  However, the household survey number not seasonally adjusted is almost 1 million fewer people working in the U.S. in July 2026 than one year earlier in July 2025.  A bit more positive news is coming soon in this blog entry.

More people may focus on the unemployment rate rather than the number employed. With seasonally adjusted data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2026, e), I calculate that the unemployment rate fell by one tenth of one per cent.  For what it is worth, when looking at the unemployment rate data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2026, f) on a not seasonally adjusted basis, the July 2026 estimate was unchanged from its June 2026 level.  If in fact fewer people are working, then a lower unemployment rate as indicated by the seasonally adjusted data could be due to people giving up on looking for jobs due to a low perceived probability of finding employment.

For those still looking for good news, remember that I reported in my earlier blog post (Hartman 2026, b) that the workplace survey employment estimates from June 2026, both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted, set records for all-time highs in U.S. employment.  How is that for broken records?

How much longer can the economy avoid slipping into a recession if fewer people are working?  Is artificial intelligence (AI) already at the point in the U.S. where it is picking up the production slack caused by fewer people working?  How much longer can people keep spending if incomes are down due to not having employment? 

Again, sorry if I sound like a broken record, but should the U.S. think about more expansionary policies, especially expansionary fiscal policies? As I asked in an earlier blog entry (Hartman 2026, b), is it time for the U.S. to think seriously about a job guarantee program?

 

Please note that the data compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics mentioned in the blog post were accessed from the FRED website of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.  Also, please note that subsequent data revisions may change the analysis and conclusions of this blog post.

 

References and Sources

Hartman, Harrison C.  (2026, a).  “A Difficult Decision for the Fed.”  Posted Online May 16, 2026 at https://harrisonhartman.blogspot.com/2026/05/a-difficult-decision-for-fed.html

Hartman, Harrison C.  (2026, b).  “Is It Soon Time for a Job Guarantee (JG) Program in the US?” Posted Online July 3, 2026 at https://harrisonhartman.blogspot.com/2026/07/is-it-soon-time-for-job-guarantee-jg.html

 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026, a). All Employees, Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, August 7, 2026.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026, b). All Employees, Total Nonfarm [PAYNSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYNSA, August 7, 2026.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026, c). Employment Level [CE16OV], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV, August 7, 2026.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026, d). Employment Level [LNU02000000], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU02000000, August 7, 2026.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026, e). Unemployment Rate [UNRATE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE, August 7, 2026.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026, f). Unemployment Rate [UNRATENSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATENSA, August 7, 2026.