Friday, December 6, 2019

SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT JOB GROWTH AND DEMOGRAPHICS


CNBC reported today (Friday, December 6, 2019) that U.S. non-farm payroll employment (probably compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) increased by 266,000 jobs in November 2019.  This growth exceeded expectations.

At some point after the announcement, I think that I heard Steve Liesman of CNBC say that Mark Zandi had suggested that from a demographic perspective, the number of jobs added in the economy must correspond with the number of people filling those newly created jobs.  If I remember correctly, Steve Liesman noted that this has not been a good predictor of job growth at this point, with job growth outpacing forecasts.  I think that Steve Liesman said that eventually Mark Zandi would be correct.

Could some of this mismatch be explained by a greater percentage of the population taking a second job or a third job?  If so, then what does that indicate about the relative performance of the U.S. economy in generating well-paying jobs (so that only one job is required to earn a living)?  Did I hear correctly on CNBC that the labor force participation rate in the U.S. actually decreased slightly in November 2019?  If it did, then does that support the hypothesis that people working at two or more jobs helps to explain the point made by Steve Liesman?  

 I may have more on this topic soon.

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