WILL SECOND QUARTER OF 2016 DATA SHOW ANOTHER DECREASE IN U.S. M1 VELOCITY? (Originally from 2016)

(I think that the blog post below is from July 27, 2016.)

Despite some evidence that economic activity in the U.S. may have picked up in the second quarter of 2016 and an expectation for the release of a higher growth rate for real GDP (and perhaps the implicit deflator) with data from the second quarter of this year (to be announced soon), it looks like the velocity of the M1 money supply will have declined yet again when the estimates are released.  This is based on the quarterly average U.S. M1 money supply growth rate in the second quarter of 2016.  Using data that I found on www.economagic.com, I estimate that the seasonally-adjusted quarterly average M1 money supply increased by roughly fourteen per cent at an annualized rate.  It does not appear that nominal GDP spending increased that rapidly.

We’ll see.  I will probably have more to post after the estimates are released.