Yesterday, CNBC and others reported
that the Bureau of Economic Analysis increased its estimate of U.S. real GDP
growth for the third quarter of 2016. Despite the U.S. economy having
grown faster than previously thought, data from www.economagic.com still show
that the velocity of the M1 money supply in the U.S. decreased again last
quarter. (Note that (1) the velocity of M1 in the United States is
calculated using nominal GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and M1
money supply data from the Federal Reserve Bank, and that (2) another estimate
of third quarter real GDP should be available around the end of December.)
What will happen to U.S. M1 velocity
in the fourth quarter? As was the case before, how rapidly M1 grows this
quarter could be the determining factor.
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