Thursday, February 8, 2018

UPWARD REVISION TO U.S. REAL GDP GROWTH, BUT M1 VELOCITY STILL FELL (Originally from 2016)

(I think that the blog post below is from November 30, 2016.)



Yesterday, CNBC and others reported that the Bureau of Economic Analysis increased its estimate of U.S. real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2016.  Despite the U.S. economy having grown faster than previously thought, data from www.economagic.com still show that the velocity of the M1 money supply in the U.S. decreased again last quarter.  (Note that (1) the velocity of M1 in the United States is calculated using nominal GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and M1 money supply data from the Federal Reserve Bank, and that (2) another estimate of third quarter real GDP should be available around the end of December.)

What will happen to U.S. M1 velocity in the fourth quarter?  As was the case before, how rapidly M1 grows this quarter could be the determining factor.

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